4 main banks predict a recession in Belgium

Federgon, the federation of the interim, agrees with these conclusions: it noticed a slowdown within the demand for non permanent workers in September, particularly for staff. “This baisse is a affirmation of what we now have noticed for the reason that starting of 2022notes Arnaud Le Grelle, regional director of the federation. We be aware for the month of September a lower of two.47 p.c in comparison with August and it’s even a drop of virtually seven p.c in comparison with September of final 12 months. We observe particularly, in comparison with final month, a doubling of the discount within the variety of hours labored by blue-collar staff. That is normally an indication of a major lower in manufacturing exercise.”

Federgon doesn’t have figures on the sectors involved, however, in response to Arnaud Le Grelle, the decline impacts a lot of sectors.“together with those who have just lately been very buoyant such because the pharmaceutical, chemical or meals sectors.“

Be aware that the interim sector is historically on the forefront. “Qwhen the financial system is dangerousadditional explains the regional director of the federation, it’s simpler to not renew the weekly contract of a brief employee than to embark on the process for breaking CDD or CDI contracts. So our declines typically announce a basic decline in exercise.“

For the 2023 horizon, if ING and Belfius anticipate a continuation of the contraction of the financial system within the first quarter, BNPP Fortis and KBC however predict zero progress. “We expect an advanced begin to the 12 monthslike Bernard Keppenne, however in all probability no recession within the first two quarters of subsequent 12 months as a result of progress charges within the euro zone and significantly in Germany have been higher than anticipated within the third quarter. It will play favorably on the beginning of subsequent 12 months.”

For the entire of 2023, ING forecasts a really slight contraction in exercise, whereas the opposite three banks anticipate minimal progress.