Covid-19, flu, bronchiolitis… Will we now have to place the masks again on to keep away from a triple epidemic this winter?

Three epidemics for the value of 1? After practically three years of Covid-19 and a slew of variants and sub-variants popping out of the hat, the coronavirus nonetheless occupies the bottom, on the coronary heart of a protracted eighth wave that began at the beginning of the college 12 months.

But when the Covid-19 stays in ambush, able to contaminate and recontaminate the crowds, this winter may be accompanied by a pageant of different viral illnesses with, in sight, a triple simultaneous epidemic of Covid-19, flu and bronchiolitis. To keep away from it, will all of us should put the masks again on in closed public locations?

Triple outbreaks overseas

When the winter virus season has not but began, it’s doable to rely on probably the most possible situations by observing upstream how epidemics flow into – or not – amongst our neighbors, close to and much. On the finish of 2020, in full reconfinement, the Covid-19 circulates at full capability, however the barrier gestures put the standard winter epidemics – flu, bronchiolitis and gastro – on mute. An unprecedented situation however noticed just a few months earlier, in the summertime of 2020, on the different finish of the globe, in the course of the austral winter. “There ought to have been epidemics of influenza virus within the southern hemisphere, besides that there have been none, indicated then to 20 minutes Vincent Enouf, virologist and deputy director of the Nationwide Reference Heart (CNR) for respiratory an infection viruses on the Institut Pasteur. Ditto for different illnesses corresponding to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), answerable for bronchiolitis in toddlers. There have been none both” that summer season.

However in 2022, the state of affairs has modified, and a number of other nations are going through a triple epidemic. First Australia which, nonetheless towards the backdrop of the circulation of Covid-19, skilled a extreme epidemic of seasonal flu, throughout which “we noticed a excessive variety of kids hospitalized” for RSV, signifies to the Telegraph Dr Conall Watson, epidemiologist on the UK Well being Safety Company. That is now the case in the US. The nation, which nonetheless registers greater than 270,000 new circumstances of coronavirus per week, is confronted with the trio Covid-19, influenza, bronchiolitis. And sees its hospital companies saturated by this phenomenon. “We’re seeing the very best price of flu-related hospitalizations in a decade,” mentioned José Romero, from the Nationwide Heart for Immunization and Respiratory Ailments, throughout the Atlantic.

And the well being risk is getting nearer. Within the UK, for instance, circumstances of bronchiolitis have risen sharply prior to now two weeks, and “we’re seeing the flu unfold throughout all age teams,” added Dr Watson.

The beginnings of a triple epidemic in France

A situation that’s already looming in France. If the present wave of Covid -19 has proven indicators of calm for the reason that finish of October, with a decline in contamination and hospitalizations, its circulation is “nonetheless very lively”, remembers Public Well being France, encouraging folks in danger – probably the most 60 years specifically – to do their vaccination reminder.

“The incidence price of circumstances of acute respiratory an infection (ARI) seen generally medication consultations was estimated at 225 circumstances per 100,000 inhabitants, observes the Sentinelles community in its newest respiratory virus surveillance bulletin. A rise within the price in comparison with the earlier week”, of the order of 10%.

In the intervening time, solely “the detection of sporadic circumstances of influenza has been confirmed”, reassures Public Well being France, however “the bronchiolitis epidemic has now unfold to all metropolitan areas”. The well being company notes “very excessive emergency room visits and hospitalizations for bronchiolitis, at ranges greater than these noticed on the epidemic peaks of the three earlier seasons, and already equal to these of the height of the 2018-2019 season”.

Sporting a “advisable” masks

For the Academy of Drugs, between “the prospect of an early seasonal flu epidemic [qui] is turning into clearer in mainland France”, “bronchiolitis in kids below 2 years of age has handed into an epidemic section all through the territory”, and the danger of “co-infection, exposing weak folks to probably the most extreme kinds and the companies hospitals prone to saturation”, there may be an pressing must resume good habits. “Once we see the benefit with which barrier gestures have been deserted, the danger of co-circulation of those respiratory viruses could be very severe”, added Dr Luc Duquesnel, normal practitioner and president of the Les Généralistes-CSMF union. The well being state of affairs “justifies a rehabilitation of barrier measures, deserted for the reason that finish of the state of well being emergency on July 31, provides the Academy of Drugs. Though the well being state of affairs doesn’t presently require a return to obligatory measures, it recommends sporting a masks “in closed public locations.

Intimately, it prescribes “the sporting of an FFP2 kind masks in enclosed public areas for the aged or carriers of comorbidities, their entourage and well being professionals who’re involved with weak folks. But in addition for pregnant ladies, even when they’re updated with their vaccinations. And he or she advises “sporting a surgical-type masks in hospitals, dispensaries, well being facilities and pharmacies, in addition to in closed areas open to the general public, corresponding to public transport”.

In the intervening time, it is a easy advice, since for the reason that finish of the state of well being emergency on August 1, the federal government can not make the sporting of a masks obligatory once more. Besides to submit the measure to the vote of Parliament.