Inflation, growth, wages: the Belgian National Bank’s four forecasts for the coming months
The national bank is publishing its economic forecasts for the coming years this afternoon. Good news first, our country will experience a short-lived recession (with a bit of luck, we could even remain in very small economic growth). Simon François our journalist deciphers the announcements of the BNB.
1 Inflation continues but…
Yes, prices will continue to rise in the coming months, but “slower” only during the year 2022 which was historic.
2 Wage indexation
It’s a fact in our country: wages adjust with inflation. And good news: automatic wage indexation will continue to protect employees. From 1is January, no less than a million workers will see their wages increase by around 11%.
3 A return to normal in 2024
While inflation is expected to increase by 4.4% next year, a return to normal is expected for 2024, around an increase of 2.4%. A few months ago, the BNB had shared a more optimistic forecast and predicted a return to normal in the fall of 2023.
4 Caution remains in order
“You should be careful”says Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium. “We were all a little mistaken, we all thought that inflation was going to fall much faster”he believes. “You have to understand what we are experiencing today is unique, we haven’t experienced this for 40 years, we have calibrated our models which we use over a period of low inflation and it is difficult to understand what is happening. happening in an environment of high inflation.”
Fortunately, Pierre Wunsch indicates that we will no longer experience such growth in energy prices. However, “uncertainty remains significant” and youn “sustainable separation” for the amount of wages, since the risk of a decline in competitiveness as a result of the crisis is “quite high”.
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