Macron’s resignation among Saxo’s 2023 “shock” forecasts

PARIS, December 6 (Reuters) – A resignation of Emmanuel Macron from the Presidency of the Republic is among Saxo’s “shock” forecasts for 2023 presented on Tuesday, extreme scenarios which are also marked by the record level of inflation , the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine.

These forecasts thus include the creation of a European army, a surge in the price of gold, price control measures on an international scale or even the formation of a coalition of billionaires to finance the search for new sources of energy.

They obviously do not constitute the basic scenario for the financial services group for the coming year, but Saxo recalls that “all major market movements are triggered by shock events”.

For 2023, explains the group’s chief investment officer, Steen Jakobsen, the shock forecast “is based on the belief that a return to the pre-pandemic disinflationary dynamics is impossible because we have entered a world war economy, all the major powers of the world now striving to strengthen their national security on all fronts”.

The invasion of Russia by Ukraine could thus, according to Saxo, lead the countries of the European Union to decide to equip themselves with common armed forces from 2028, by committing 10,000 billion euros in investments over 20 years.

The persistence of inflation could also lead some countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom, to control prices and wages, while propelling the price of gold to 3,000 dollars an ounce, against less than $1,800 today.

The resignation of Emmanuel Macron, mentioned by Saxo, would result from his inability to pass reforms or a budget without resorting to article 49.3 of the constitution, for lack of a majority. In this scenario, “Macron’s resignation opens the door to Elyse Le Pen, a candidate for the far right”.

Saxo also evokes the possibility that a country agrees to put an end to all meat production by 2030, that of the United Kingdom organizing a referendum on its return to the European Union or that that the countries of the OPEC+, China and India join forces to get out of the International Monetary Fund and create a new reserve currency.

Saxo recalls that some of its past “shock” predictions have been verified: the group had for example predicted at the end of 2014 that the United Kingdom would leave the European Union and at the end of 2016 that the value of bitcoin, then close to 700 dollars, would triple in one year. (Written by Marc Angrand, said by Blandine Hnault)